Xpect
Skopje vs Aresimi: prediction and statistics
North Macedonia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Skopje host Aresimi in First League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Skopje are 10th, Aresimi 9th in a table of 10. Both sides are in the bottom three.
Results have gone against Skopje recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. An uneven run for Aresimi: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home matches have been a struggle for Skopje (2024/25–2026/27) — 3 draws and 3 defeats in 6 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 on average. Away from home Aresimi have 7 wins, 3 draws and 13 defeats in 23 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.0 per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 4 in 7 meetings. Last time out (29 August 2026) it ended Aresimi 0:0 Skopje. On average these meetings produce 2.0 goals.
Form
Skopje: last five matches — L-L-L-W-D.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Aresimi: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Skopje — 10, Aresimi — 9 (of 10).
Home and away record
Skopje at home and Aresimi away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Skopje | Aresimi | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 23 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 0-3-3 | 7-3-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 2.0 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Skopje won 2, 4 draws, Aresimi won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 29.08.2026: Aresimi 0:0 Skopje
- 19.07.2026: Skopje 2:1 Aresimi
- 12.04.2025: Skopje 0:2 Aresimi
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Skopje 43%, draw 25%, Aresimi 32%.
- 4 of the 7 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Skopje home games and 56% of Aresimi away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Skopje 2.4, Aresimi 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 78%.
Result
Our model: Skopje win 43%, draw 25%, Aresimi win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Skopje | Aresimi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 0% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 83% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | — | 8.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 83% | 39% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.