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Vardar Skopje vs Tikveš: prediction and statistics
North Macedonia · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Vardar Skopje · Tikveš
Before kick-off
First League, 21 November 2026: Vardar Skopje are at home to Tikveš. They are neighbours in the table: Vardar Skopje are 4th and Tikveš 3rd of 10. Tikveš are in the top three.
Recent results of Vardar Skopje are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Tikveš are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. In points that is almost level: 9 against 9.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Vardar Skopje have 21 wins, 8 draws and 9 defeats in 38 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Tikveš: 10 wins, 14 draws and 14 defeats in 38 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 12 meetings — wins: Vardar Skopje 6, Tikveš 2; draws: 4. The most recent meeting, on 28 October 2026, finished Vardar Skopje 1:3 Tikveš. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Vardar Skopje: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
Tikveš: last five matches — D-W-D-W-D.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Vardar Skopje — 4, Tikveš — 3 (of 10).
Home and away record
Vardar Skopje at home and Tikveš away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Vardar Skopje | Tikveš | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 38 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-8-9 | 10-14-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Vardar Skopje won 6, 4 draws, Tikveš won 2. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 28.10.2026: Vardar Skopje 1:3 Tikveš
- 31.08.2026: Tikveš 1:1 Vardar Skopje
- 26.04.2026: Vardar Skopje 7:0 Tikveš
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Vardar Skopje is the more likely winner in our model: 56%, draw 21%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Vardar Skopje’s home matches and 42% of Tikveš’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Vardar Skopje 2.2, Tikveš 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 78%.
Result
Our model: Vardar Skopje win 56%, draw 21%, Tikveš win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 65%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Vardar Skopje | Tikveš | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 55% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | 7.0 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 61% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.