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Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali: prediction and statistics
Bulgaria · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Slavia Sofia · Arda Kardzhali
Before kick-off
Slavia Sofia host Arda Kardzhali in First League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Slavia Sofia are 8th, Arda Kardzhali 6th in a table of 14.
Slavia Sofia have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Arda Kardzhali are in a difficult spell: 1 win and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches.
The home record of Slavia Sofia (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 18 wins, 13 draws and 14 defeats in 45 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Away from home Arda Kardzhali have 14 wins, 12 draws and 17 defeats in 43 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 per game.
The 24 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Slavia Sofia 8, Arda Kardzhali 10, draws 6. Last time out (24 July 2026) it ended Arda Kardzhali 1:0 Slavia Sofia. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Slavia Sofia: last five matches — L-D-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Arda Kardzhali: last five matches — L-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Slavia Sofia — 8, Arda Kardzhali — 6 (of 14).
Home and away record
Slavia Sofia at home and Arda Kardzhali away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Slavia Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-13-14 | 14-12-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Slavia Sofia won 8, 6 draws, Arda Kardzhali won 10. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 24.07.2026: Arda Kardzhali 1:0 Slavia Sofia
- 14.02.2026: Arda Kardzhali 2:1 Slavia Sofia
- 25.08.2025: Slavia Sofia 2:0 Arda Kardzhali
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 44% of Slavia Sofia home games and 42% of Arda Kardzhali away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Slavia Sofia 2.0, Arda Kardzhali 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Slavia Sofia win 46%, draw 26%, Arda Kardzhali win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Slavia Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 49% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.