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Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and statistics
Bulgaria · First League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Spartak Varna · Cherno More Varna
Before kick-off
First League, 21 November 2026: Spartak Varna are at home to Cherno More Varna. They are neighbours in the table: Spartak Varna are 7th and Cherno More Varna 9th of 14.
An uneven run for Spartak Varna: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Cherno More Varna have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 5 against 5.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Spartak Varna have 18 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The away record of Cherno More Varna: 15 wins, 13 draws and 15 defeats in 43 matches, with 1.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average.
This fixture often ends level: 3 of the 7 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 26 July 2026, finished Cherno More Varna 0:3 Spartak Varna. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Spartak Varna: last five matches — L-D-D-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Cherno More Varna: last five matches — L-D-L-W-D.
- 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Spartak Varna — 7, Cherno More Varna — 9 (of 14).
Home and away record
Spartak Varna at home and Cherno More Varna away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Spartak Varna | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 18-10-16 | 15-13-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Spartak Varna won 1, 3 draws, Cherno More Varna won 3. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 26.07.2026: Cherno More Varna 0:3 Spartak Varna
- 07.02.2026: Cherno More Varna 0:0 Spartak Varna
- 16.08.2025: Spartak Varna 1:3 Cherno More Varna
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 33% – 26% – 41%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 55% of Spartak Varna’s home matches and 40% of Cherno More Varna’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 3 of 7 meetings.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Spartak Varna 2.1, Cherno More Varna 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Spartak Varna win 33%, draw 26%, Cherno More Varna win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Spartak Varna | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 41% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 44% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 56% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 12.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.