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Spaeri vs Meshakhte: prediction and statistics
Georgia · Erovnuli Liga · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Spaeri · Meshakhte
Before kick-off
Erovnuli Liga, 20 November 2026: Spaeri are at home to Meshakhte. They are neighbours in the table: Spaeri are 8th and Meshakhte 10th of 10. Both sides are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for Spaeri: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Meshakhte have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 6 against 5.
Spaeri have not made their ground a fortress: 4 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats in 17 home matches (2024–2026), 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Meshakhte — 2 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats in 17 away matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 on average.
This fixture often ends level: 5 of the 7 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 5 September 2026, finished Meshakhte 2:2 Spaeri. On average these meetings produce 1.4 goals.
Form
Spaeri: last five matches — D-L-D-D-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Meshakhte: last five matches — W-D-D-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Spaeri — 8, Meshakhte — 10 (of 10).
Home and away record
Spaeri at home and Meshakhte away, 2024–2026.
| Spaeri | Meshakhte | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 17 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-6-7 | 2-6-9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Spaeri won 2, 5 draws, Meshakhte won 0. Per match: 1.4 goals.
- 05.09.2026: Meshakhte 2:2 Spaeri
- 25.05.2026: Spaeri 2:1 Meshakhte
- 07.04.2026: Meshakhte 0:0 Spaeri
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Spaeri is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 65% of Spaeri’s home matches and 41% of Meshakhte’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 5 of 7 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from Spaeri: 5.2 against 4.0 for Meshakhte.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Spaeri 5.2, Meshakhte 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Spaeri 2.1, Meshakhte 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Spaeri win 53%, draw 23%, Meshakhte win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Spaeri | Meshakhte | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 24% | 12% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 77% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 47% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 71% | 41% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.