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Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom: prediction and statistics
Europe · Europa League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Sparta Prague 7.7, Lillestrom 2.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Sparta Prague 2.0, Lillestrom 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Sparta Prague win 74%, draw 16%, Lillestrom win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 48%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Sparta Prague
All 17: 10W · 1D · 6L · goals 30:19
Home 8: 6W · 1D · 1L · goals 19:7
- 16.09.26 · UEL · Ararat-Armenia (a) 4:1
- 11.08.26 · UCL · Lyon (a) 0:3
- 04.08.26 · UCL · Lyon (h) 2:1
- 19.03.26 · UECL · AZ Alkmaar (h) 0:4
- 12.03.26 · UECL · AZ Alkmaar (a) 1:2
League · Czech Liga 2026/27: 3 of 16 · 6W · 0D · 4L · goals 20:12. Czechia — 10 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 45.1).
Lillestrom
All 3: 1W · 1D · 1L · goals 3:3
Away 1: 0W · 1D · 0L · goals 0:0
- 17.09.26 · UEL · Torreense (h) 1:2
- 27.08.26 · UEL · Egnatia Rrogozhinë (h) 2:1
- 20.08.26 · UEL · Egnatia Rrogozhinë (a) 0:0
League · Eliteserien 2026: 6 of 16 · 10W · 3D · 9L · goals 30:31. Norway — 13 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 38.6).
UEL: league phase 2026/27: Sparta Prague — 3 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; Lillestrom — 23 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Sparta Prague: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 6 wins in a row · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Lillestrom: last five matches — .
Team statistics for three seasons
Sparta Prague at home and Lillestrom away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sparta Prague | Lillestrom | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Win rate | — | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | — | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | — | 0.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 0% |
| Both teams score | — | 0% |
| Total corners per match | — | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | 2.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?
Our model expects 10.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom?
Our model: Sparta Prague 74%, draw 16%, Lillestrom 10%.