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Sporting Gijon vs Albacete: prediction and statistics
Spain · Segunda · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Sporting Gijon 4.6, Albacete 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Sporting Gijon 2.1, Albacete 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 53%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: Sporting Gijon win 52%, draw 25%, Albacete win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Form
Sporting Gijon: last five matches — .
Albacete: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Sporting Gijon at home and Albacete away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sporting Gijon | Albacete | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 46 |
| Win rate | 49% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 37% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Sporting Gijon won 10, 7 draws, Albacete won 5. Per match: 3.0 goals, 9.6 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 15.02.2026: Albacete 1:1 Sporting Gijon
- 28.09.2025: Sporting Gijon 3:4 Albacete
- 23.03.2025: Sporting Gijon 0:2 Albacete
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sporting Gijon vs Albacete?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Sporting Gijon vs Albacete?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 47%.
Who is more likely to win Sporting Gijon vs Albacete?
Our model: Sporting Gijon 52%, draw 25%, Albacete 23%.