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TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: TSG Hoffenheim 6.2, Hamburg SV 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: TSG Hoffenheim 2.2, Hamburg SV 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 61%, typical match 55%.
Result
Market line without margin: TSG Hoffenheim win 66%, draw 20%, Hamburg SV win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
TSG Hoffenheim: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Hamburg SV: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: TSG Hoffenheim — 14, Hamburg SV — 16 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
TSG Hoffenheim at home and Hamburg SV away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| TSG Hoffenheim | Hamburg SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 19 |
| Win rate | 42% | 16% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 42% |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: TSG Hoffenheim won 10, 4 draws, Hamburg SV won 8. Per match: 3.0 goals, 10.3 corners, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 25.04.2026: Hamburg SV 1:2 TSG Hoffenheim
- 13.12.2025: TSG Hoffenheim 4:1 Hamburg SV
- 14.04.2018: TSG Hoffenheim 2:0 Hamburg SV
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
Market line without margin: TSG Hoffenheim 66%, draw 20%, Hamburg SV 15%.