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VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: VfB Stuttgart · Atlético Madrid
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: VfB Stuttgart 6.1, Atlético Madrid 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: VfB Stuttgart 1.7, Atlético Madrid 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: VfB Stuttgart win 40%, draw 21%, Atlético Madrid win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 72%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
VfB Stuttgart
All 13: 7W · 0D · 6L · goals 23:16
Home 7: 5W · 0D · 2L · goals 15:8
- 09.09.26 · UCL · Viking (h) 3:1
- 19.03.26 · UEL · FC Porto (a) 0:2
- 12.03.26 · UEL · FC Porto (h) 1:2
- 26.02.26 · UEL · Celtic (h) 0:1
- 19.02.26 · UEL · Celtic (a) 4:1
League · Bundesliga 2026/27: 11 of 18 · 2W · 0D · 3L · goals 8:9. Germany — 4 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 81.5).
Atlético Madrid
All 17: 7W · 3D · 7L · goals 36:30
Away 9: 2W · 2D · 5L · goals 14:19
- 09.09.26 · UCL · Liverpool (a) 1:2
- 05.05.26 · UCL · Arsenal (a) 0:1
- 29.04.26 · UCL · Arsenal (h) 1:1
- 14.04.26 · UCL · Barcelona (h) 1:2
- 08.04.26 · UCL · Barcelona (a) 2:0
League · La Liga 2026/27: 2 of 20 · 6W · 1D · 1L · goals 18:8. Spain — 3 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 83.2).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: VfB Stuttgart — 7 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; Atlético Madrid — 25 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
VfB Stuttgart: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Atlético Madrid: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.
- 10 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
VfB Stuttgart at home and Atlético Madrid away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| VfB Stuttgart | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 14 |
| Win rate | 40% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 79% |
| Both teams score | 80% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 8.2 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 36% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model: VfB Stuttgart 40%, draw 21%, Atlético Madrid 39%.