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Vila Nova vs Novorizontino: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Vila Nova 5.7, Novorizontino 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Vila Nova 2.4, Novorizontino 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Vila Nova win 43%, draw 27%, Novorizontino win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Form
Vila Nova: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Novorizontino: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Vila Nova — 2, Novorizontino — 3 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Vila Nova at home and Novorizontino away, 2024–2026.
| Vila Nova | Novorizontino | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 54 |
| Win rate | 61% | 37% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 10.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 72% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 65% | 61% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Vila Nova won 2, 3 draws, Novorizontino won 4. Per match: 2.2 goals, 10.7 corners, 5.8 yellow cards.
- 26.06.2026: Novorizontino 2:1 Vila Nova
- 28.09.2025: Novorizontino 1:1 Vila Nova
- 30.05.2025: Vila Nova 0:1 Novorizontino
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 54%.
Who is more likely to win Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our model: Vila Nova 43%, draw 27%, Novorizontino 30%.