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York vs Accrington ST: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: York · Accrington ST
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: York 6.2, Accrington ST 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: York 1.4, Accrington ST 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: York win 53%, draw 23%, Accrington ST win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
York: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Accrington ST: last five matches — L-L-L-D-D.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: York — 5, Accrington ST — 15 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
York at home and Accrington ST away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| York | Accrington ST | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 51 |
| Win rate | 80% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 20% | 59% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: York won 2, 4 draws, Accrington ST won 4. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 29.07.2023: Accrington ST 2:0 York
- 23.04.2016: Accrington ST 3:0 York
- 28.11.2015: York 1:5 Accrington ST
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in York vs Accrington ST?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in York vs Accrington ST?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 27%.
Who is more likely to win York vs Accrington ST?
Our model: York 53%, draw 23%, Accrington ST 23%.