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1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: 1. FC Union Berlin 4.9, Borussia Dortmund 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: 1. FC Union Berlin 1.7, Borussia Dortmund 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 65%.
Result
Market line without margin: 1. FC Union Berlin win 20%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund win 57%. Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 63%.
Form
1. FC Union Berlin: last five matches — D-W-L-D-L.
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Borussia Dortmund: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · away
Table: 1. FC Union Berlin — 17, Borussia Dortmund — 1 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
1. FC Union Berlin at home and Borussia Dortmund away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| 1. FC Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 28% | 47% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 43% | 50% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: 1. FC Union Berlin won 4, 2 draws, Borussia Dortmund won 10. Per match: 3.6 goals, 9.6 corners, 3.1 yellow cards.
- 24.01.2026: 1. FC Union Berlin 0:3 Borussia Dortmund
- 31.08.2025: Borussia Dortmund 3:0 1. FC Union Berlin
- 22.02.2025: Borussia Dortmund 6:0 1. FC Union Berlin
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Market line without margin: 1. FC Union Berlin 20%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 57%.