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AD Fazendense vs Estrela: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: AD Fazendense · Estrela
Result
Our model: AD Fazendense win 2%, draw 9%, Estrela win 89%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 24%.
Form
AD Fazendense: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Estrela: last five matches — D-D-W-D-L.
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
AD Fazendense at home and Estrela away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| AD Fazendense | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 5 |
| Win rate | 67% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | — | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 25% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win AD Fazendense vs Estrela?
Our model: AD Fazendense 2%, draw 9%, Estrela 89%.