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Florgrade vs Portimonense: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Florgrade · Portimonense
Result
Our model: Florgrade win 14%, draw 21%, Portimonense win 64%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Florgrade: last five matches — D.
Portimonense: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Florgrade at home and Portimonense away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Florgrade | Portimonense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Win rate | 33% | 100% |
| Goals scored per match | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | 0.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Florgrade vs Portimonense?
Our model: Florgrade 14%, draw 21%, Portimonense 64%.