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União Santarém vs Gil Vicente: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 14 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: União Santarém · Gil Vicente
Result
Our model: União Santarém win 11%, draw 21%, Gil Vicente win 68%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 38%.
Form
União Santarém: last five matches — W.
Gil Vicente: last five matches — D-L-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Team statistics for three seasons
União Santarém at home and Gil Vicente away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| União Santarém | Gil Vicente | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Win rate | 75% | 67% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 33% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 33% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win União Santarém vs Gil Vicente?
Our model: União Santarém 11%, draw 21%, Gil Vicente 68%.