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Sanjoanense vs C.D. Nacional: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Taça de Portugal · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sanjoanense · C.D. Nacional
Result
Our model: Sanjoanense win 14%, draw 21%, C.D. Nacional win 64%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Sanjoanense: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
C.D. Nacional: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 6 losses in a row · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Sanjoanense at home and C.D. Nacional away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sanjoanense | C.D. Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Win rate | 33% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 6.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 67% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Sanjoanense vs C.D. Nacional?
Our model: Sanjoanense 14%, draw 21%, C.D. Nacional 64%.