Xpect
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF: prediction and statistics
Sweden · Allsvenskan · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: AIK Stockholm · Degerfors IF
Before kick-off
Allsvenskan, 21 November 2026: AIK Stockholm are at home to Degerfors IF. AIK Stockholm sit 8th in the 16-team table while Degerfors IF are 14th, so 6 places separate the two sides. Degerfors IF are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for AIK Stockholm: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Degerfors IF are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) AIK Stockholm have 22 wins, 10 draws and 12 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The away record of Degerfors IF: 9 wins, 4 draws and 16 defeats in 29 matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.9 conceded on average. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.1 per game in home matches of AIK Stockholm and 3.2 in away matches of Degerfors IF.
Head to head there is no clear master over 11 meetings — wins: AIK Stockholm 4, Degerfors IF 3; draws: 4. The most recent meeting, on 23 April 2026, finished Degerfors IF 2:1 AIK Stockholm. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
AIK Stockholm: last five matches — D-L-D-D-W.
- 9 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Degerfors IF: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: AIK Stockholm — 8, Degerfors IF — 14 (of 16).
Home and away record
AIK Stockholm at home and Degerfors IF away, 2024–2026.
| AIK Stockholm | Degerfors IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 29 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-10-12 | 9-4-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: AIK Stockholm won 4, 4 draws, Degerfors IF won 3. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 23.04.2026: Degerfors IF 2:1 AIK Stockholm
- 17.01.2026: AIK Stockholm 3:3 Degerfors IF
- 24.08.2025: Degerfors IF 0:1 AIK Stockholm
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 57% of AIK Stockholm’s home matches and 62% of Degerfors IF’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from AIK Stockholm: 5.9 against 4.3 for Degerfors IF.
- AIK Stockholm is the more likely winner in our model: 68%, draw 19%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: AIK Stockholm 5.9, Degerfors IF 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: AIK Stockholm 1.8, Degerfors IF 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 29%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 71%, typical match 71%.
Result
Our model: AIK Stockholm win 68%, draw 19%, Degerfors IF win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| AIK Stockholm | Degerfors IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 62% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 55% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 35% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.