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Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: prediction and statistics
Sweden · Allsvenskan · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ostersunds FK · Varbergs BoIS FC
Before kick-off
Ostersunds FK host Varbergs BoIS FC in Allsvenskan on 21 November 2026.
Ostersunds FK are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. No defeats for Varbergs BoIS FC in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws). Measured in points the two runs are close — 9 and 9.
The home record of Ostersunds FK (2024–2026) is balanced: 2 wins and 4 draws in 6 matches, 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded per game. On the road Varbergs BoIS FC are a dangerous side — 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat in 6 away matches, 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
The 11 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Ostersunds FK 2, Varbergs BoIS FC 6, draws 3. Last time out (10 October 2026) it ended Ostersunds FK 1:1 Varbergs BoIS FC. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Ostersunds FK: last five matches — D-W-D-W-D.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
Varbergs BoIS FC: last five matches — D-W-D-D-W.
- 11 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Home and away record
Ostersunds FK at home and Varbergs BoIS FC away, 2024–2026.
| Ostersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-4-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Ostersunds FK won 2, 3 draws, Varbergs BoIS FC won 6. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 10.10.2026: Ostersunds FK 1:1 Varbergs BoIS FC
- 06.04.2026: Varbergs BoIS FC 1:2 Ostersunds FK
- 24.08.2025: Varbergs BoIS FC 1:1 Ostersunds FK
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Ostersunds FK should win the corner count: 6.7 expected against 3.4 for Varbergs BoIS FC.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 17% of Ostersunds FK home games and 33% of Varbergs BoIS FC away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Ostersunds FK 40%, draw 26%, Varbergs BoIS FC 34%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Ostersunds FK 6.7, Varbergs BoIS FC 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Ostersunds FK 1.6, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 29%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 57%, typical match 52%.
Result
Our model: Ostersunds FK win 40%, draw 26%, Varbergs BoIS FC win 34%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ostersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 17% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 83% |
| Total corners per match | 11.2 | 15.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 80% | 80% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 0% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.