Xpect
Ararat vs BKMA: prediction and statistics
Armenia · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Premier League, 21 November 2026: Ararat are at home to BKMA. They are neighbours in the table: Ararat are 9th and BKMA 8th of 12.
Ararat are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. BKMA are still looking for a win: 5 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Ararat have not made their ground a fortress: 6 wins, 8 draws and 20 defeats in 34 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.9 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for BKMA — 7 wins, 8 draws and 19 defeats in 34 away matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.1 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 20 meetings — wins: Ararat 6, BKMA 7; draws: 7. The most recent meeting, on 15 August 2026, finished BKMA 1:2 Ararat. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Ararat: last five matches — L-W-L-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
BKMA: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 5 losses in a row · away
Table: Ararat — 9, BKMA — 8 (of 12).
Home and away record
Ararat at home and BKMA away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ararat | BKMA | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 34 | 34 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 6-8-20 | 7-8-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.1 |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Ararat won 6, 7 draws, BKMA won 7. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 15.08.2026: BKMA 1:2 Ararat
- 26.05.2026: Ararat 1:1 BKMA
- 19.10.2025: BKMA 4:0 Ararat
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 38% – 25% – 38%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Ararat’s home matches and 68% of BKMA’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Ararat 2.3, BKMA 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 64%, typical match 63%.
Result
Our model: Ararat win 38%, draw 25%, BKMA win 38%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ararat | BKMA | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 18% | 21% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 68% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 35% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.