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Auckland vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and statistics
Australia · A-League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Auckland · Melbourne Victory
Before kick-off
Auckland host Melbourne Victory in A-League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Auckland are 7th, Melbourne Victory 9th in a table of 12.
Auckland have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Melbourne Victory no victory — 3 draws and 2 defeats.
The home record of Auckland (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 15 wins, 11 draws and 6 defeats in 32 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. Away from home Melbourne Victory have 12 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 31 matches, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 per game.
Draws are a feature of this pairing — 3 in 6 meetings. Last time out (11 April 2026) it ended Auckland 2:2 Melbourne Victory. On average these meetings produce 1.5 goals.
Form
Auckland: last five matches — W-L-L-W-D.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Melbourne Victory: last five matches — D-D-L-L-D.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Auckland — 7, Melbourne Victory — 9 (of 12).
Home and away record
Auckland at home and Melbourne Victory away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Auckland | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 32 | 31 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-11-6 | 12-7-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Auckland won 2, 3 draws, Melbourne Victory won 1. Per match: 1.5 goals.
- 11.04.2026: Auckland 2:2 Melbourne Victory
- 18.10.2025: Melbourne Victory 0:0 Auckland
- 24.05.2025: Auckland 0:2 Melbourne Victory
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- 3 of the 6 meetings between these teams ended in a draw.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 53% of Auckland home games and 58% of Melbourne Victory away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Auckland 44%, draw 25%, Melbourne Victory 31%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.8 corners in the match: Auckland 5.4, Melbourne Victory 5.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.9. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 63% (typical match — 65%).
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Auckland 1.8, Melbourne Victory 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 40%).
Result
Our model: Auckland win 44%, draw 25%, Melbourne Victory win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Auckland | Melbourne Victory | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 11.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 68% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 36% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.