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Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory: prediction and statistics
Australia · A-League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Central Coast Mariners · Perth Glory
Before kick-off
A-League, 21 November 2026: Central Coast Mariners are at home to Perth Glory. Central Coast Mariners go into the match 11th of 12 in the table, Perth Glory are 6th. Central Coast Mariners are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
No defeats for Central Coast Mariners in the last 5 games (5 draws). Perth Glory are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Central Coast Mariners have not made their ground a fortress: 5 wins, 13 draws and 9 defeats in 27 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Perth Glory — 5 wins, 8 draws and 15 defeats in 28 away matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 43 meetings — wins: Central Coast Mariners 15, Perth Glory 17; draws: 11. The most recent meeting, on 4 April 2026, finished Central Coast Mariners 2:2 Perth Glory. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Central Coast Mariners: last five matches — D-D-D-D-D.
- 9 matches without a win · all competitions
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Perth Glory: last five matches — D-D-D-L-L.
- 12 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Central Coast Mariners — 11, Perth Glory — 6 (of 12).
Home and away record
Central Coast Mariners at home and Perth Glory away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Central Coast Mariners | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 28 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-13-9 | 5-8-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
Head to head
43 meetings in our database: Central Coast Mariners won 15, 11 draws, Perth Glory won 17. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 04.04.2026: Central Coast Mariners 2:2 Perth Glory
- 10.01.2026: Perth Glory 3:0 Central Coast Mariners
- 07.11.2025: Perth Glory 0:1 Central Coast Mariners
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 33% – 25% – 42%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 67% of Central Coast Mariners’s home matches and 61% of Perth Glory’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Central Coast Mariners 5.3, Perth Glory 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.9. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 65%).
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Central Coast Mariners 1.7, Perth Glory 1.7; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 40%).
Result
Our model: Central Coast Mariners win 33%, draw 25%, Perth Glory win 42%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Central Coast Mariners | Perth Glory | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 19% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 70% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 22% | 11% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.