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Brisbane Roar vs Sydney: prediction and statistics
Australia · A-League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Brisbane Roar · Sydney
Before kick-off
Brisbane Roar host Sydney in A-League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Brisbane Roar are 4th, Sydney 3rd in a table of 12. Sydney are part of the leading group.
Brisbane Roar have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Sydney are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Counted in points, Sydney took 10 from that stretch and Brisbane Roar only 5.
Home matches have been a struggle for Brisbane Roar (2024/25–2026/27) — 6 wins, 7 draws and 15 defeats in 28 games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.6 on average. Away from home Sydney have 11 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 30 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 per game.
The 45 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Brisbane Roar 14, Sydney 19, draws 12. Last time out (9 August 2026) it ended Brisbane Roar 2:4 Sydney. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Brisbane Roar: last five matches — D-L-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Sydney: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Brisbane Roar — 4, Sydney — 3 (of 12).
Home and away record
Brisbane Roar at home and Sydney away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Brisbane Roar | Sydney | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 28 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 6-7-15 | 11-7-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Head to head
45 meetings in our database: Brisbane Roar won 14, 12 draws, Sydney won 19. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 09.08.2026: Brisbane Roar 2:4 Sydney
- 02.04.2026: Brisbane Roar 0:0 Sydney
- 21.02.2026: Sydney 1:0 Brisbane Roar
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model makes Sydney the favourite at 51%; a draw is 25%.
- Brisbane Roar should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 4.2 for Sydney.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Brisbane Roar home games and 43% of Sydney away games.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Brisbane Roar 6.0, Sydney 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.9. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 65%).
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Brisbane Roar 2.4, Sydney 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 40%).
Result
Our model: Brisbane Roar win 24%, draw 25%, Sydney win 51%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Brisbane Roar | Sydney | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 21% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 23% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.