Xpect
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Bayern Munich 5.7, RB Leipzig 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Bayern Munich 1.5, RB Leipzig 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 45%.
Form
Bayern Munich: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 17 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 wins in a row · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
RB Leipzig: last five matches — L-W-L-L-L.
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Bayern Munich — 2, RB Leipzig — 9 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Bayern Munich at home and RB Leipzig away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 83% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 14% | 31% |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Bayern Munich won 15, 8 draws, RB Leipzig won 3. Per match: 3.7 goals, 9.4 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 15.08.2026: Bayern Munich 3:1 RB Leipzig
- 11.02.2026: Bayern Munich 2:0 RB Leipzig
- 17.01.2026: RB Leipzig 1:5 Bayern Munich
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 28%.