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CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 22 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: CF Pachuca · Cruz Azul
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 45% – 24% – 31%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of CF Pachuca’s home matches and 58% of Cruz Azul’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: CF Pachuca 5.0, Cruz Azul 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: CF Pachuca 2.2, Cruz Azul 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 53%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: CF Pachuca win 45%, draw 24%, Cruz Azul win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
CF Pachuca: last five matches — L-L-D-D-D.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Cruz Azul: last five matches — W-L-L-D-D.
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: CF Pachuca — 11, Cruz Azul — 7 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
CF Pachuca at home and Cruz Azul away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| CF Pachuca | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 48 |
| Win rate | 44% | 48% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 69% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 44% |
Head to head
23 meetings in our database: CF Pachuca won 8, 3 draws, Cruz Azul won 12. Per match: 2.6 goals, 10.2 corners, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 05.04.2026: Cruz Azul 1:2 CF Pachuca
- 13.09.2025: CF Pachuca 0:1 Cruz Azul
- 09.02.2025: Cruz Azul 2:1 CF Pachuca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 47%.
Who is more likely to win CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?
Our model: CF Pachuca 45%, draw 24%, Cruz Azul 31%.