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Chapulineros vs Montañeses: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga Premier · 16 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Chapulineros · Montañeses
Result
Our model: Chapulineros win 29%, draw 26%, Montañeses win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Form
Chapulineros: last five matches — L-D-L-D-L.
- 10 matches without a win · at home
Montañeses: last five matches — W-L-D-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Chapulineros — 13, Montañeses — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Chapulineros at home and Montañeses away, 2026.
| Chapulineros | Montañeses | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Win rate | 0% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Chapulineros won 0, 0 draws, Montañeses won 2. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 21.03.2026: Chapulineros 0:2 Montañeses
- 09.11.2025: Montañeses 2:1 Chapulineros
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Chapulineros vs Montañeses?
Our model: Chapulineros 29%, draw 26%, Montañeses 44%.