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Tapachula vs Deportiva Venados: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga Premier · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Tapachula · Deportiva Venados
Result
Our model: Tapachula win 31%, draw 22%, Deportiva Venados win 47%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 67%.
Form
Tapachula: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Deportiva Venados: last five matches — W-D-D-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Tapachula — 17, Deportiva Venados — 12 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tapachula at home and Deportiva Venados away, 2026.
| Tapachula | Deportiva Venados | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Win rate | 33% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | — | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | — | — |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Tapachula won 0, 0 draws, Deportiva Venados won 4. Per match: 4.0 goals.
- 17.01.2026: Tapachula 2:3 Deportiva Venados
- 30.08.2025: Deportiva Venados 3:1 Tapachula
- 26.01.2025: Tapachula 1:3 Deportiva Venados
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Tapachula vs Deportiva Venados?
Our model: Tapachula 31%, draw 22%, Deportiva Venados 47%.