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Derby vs Stoke City: prediction and statistics
England · Championship · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Derby 5.3, Stoke City 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Derby 2.0, Stoke City 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 59%, typical match 52%.
Form
Derby: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Stoke City: last five matches — L-L-L-D-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Derby — 22, Stoke City — 8 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Derby at home and Stoke City away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Derby | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 50 | 50 |
| Win rate | 38% | 22% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 38% |
| Total corners per match | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 58% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 36% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Derby won 4, 4 draws, Stoke City won 5. Per match: 2.2 goals, 10.0 corners, 3.8 yellow cards.
- 06.04.2026: Derby 2:0 Stoke City
- 09.08.2025: Stoke City 3:1 Derby
- 03.05.2025: Derby 0:0 Stoke City
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Derby vs Stoke City?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 40%.