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Envigado vs Union Magdalena: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera B · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Envigado · Union Magdalena
Before kick-off
Envigado host Union Magdalena in Primera B on 15 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Envigado are 2nd, Union Magdalena 4th in a table of 16. Envigado are in the top three.
Envigado arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. No defeats for Union Magdalena in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws).
The home record of Envigado (2024–2026) is balanced: 10 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats in 21 matches, 1.1 scored and 0.5 conceded per game. On the road Union Magdalena are a dangerous side — 19 wins, 13 draws and 12 defeats in 44 away matches, 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Both samples are low on goals: 1.6 per game in home matches of Envigado and 2.3 in away matches of Union Magdalena.
The 11 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Envigado 1, Union Magdalena 6, draws 4. Last time out (2 November 2026) it ended Union Magdalena 1:1 Envigado. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Envigado: last five matches — D-D-W-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 8 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · at home
Union Magdalena: last five matches — W-D-W-D-D.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Envigado — 2, Union Magdalena — 4 (of 16).
Home and away record
Envigado at home and Union Magdalena away, 2024–2026.
| Envigado | Union Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 21 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-8-3 | 19-13-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 0.9 |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Envigado won 1, 4 draws, Union Magdalena won 6. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 02.11.2026: Union Magdalena 1:1 Envigado
- 01.09.2026: Envigado 0:1 Union Magdalena
- 09.04.2026: Union Magdalena 4:2 Envigado
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 14% of Envigado home games and 41% of Union Magdalena away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Envigado 2.1, Union Magdalena 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 54% (typical match — 59%).
Result
Our model: Envigado win 46%, draw 29%, Union Magdalena win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 41%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Envigado | Union Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 48% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 14% | 41% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 57% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.8 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.