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Popayan vs Ind. Yumbo: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera B · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Popayan · Ind. Yumbo
Before kick-off
Primera B, 15 November 2026: Popayan are at home to Ind. Yumbo. Popayan go into the match 10th of 16 in the table, Ind. Yumbo are 7th.
Recent results of Popayan are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Ind. Yumbo have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) Popayan have 17 wins, 14 draws and 21 defeats in 52 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Ind. Yumbo: 7 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats in 17 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.1 per game in home matches of Popayan and 1.6 in away matches of Ind. Yumbo.
Head to head there is no clear master over 3 meetings — wins: Popayan 1, Ind. Yumbo 1; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 2 November 2026, finished Ind. Yumbo 2:4 Popayan. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Popayan: last five matches — D-L-W-D-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Ind. Yumbo: last five matches — W-D-L-L-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Popayan — 10, Ind. Yumbo — 7 (of 16).
Home and away record
Popayan at home and Ind. Yumbo away, 2024–2026.
| Popayan | Ind. Yumbo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-14-21 | 7-4-6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Popayan won 1, 1 draws, Ind. Yumbo won 1. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 02.11.2026: Ind. Yumbo 2:4 Popayan
- 20.10.2026: Ind. Yumbo 3:0 Popayan
- 07.04.2026: Popayan 0:0 Ind. Yumbo
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 44% – 27% – 29%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 35% of Popayan’s home matches and 6% of Ind. Yumbo’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Popayan 2.2, Ind. Yumbo 2.1; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 59%).
Result
Our model: Popayan win 44%, draw 27%, Ind. Yumbo win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 49%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Popayan | Ind. Yumbo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 6% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 18% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 48% | 47% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.