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Quindio vs Real Cartagena: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera B · 16 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Quindio · Real Cartagena
Before kick-off
Quindio host Real Cartagena in Primera B on 16 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Quindio are 1st, Real Cartagena 3rd in a table of 16. Both sides are in the top three.
Quindio arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. No defeats for Real Cartagena in the last 5 games (5 draws). Counted in points, Quindio took 13 from that stretch and Real Cartagena only 5.
The home record of Quindio (2024–2026) is balanced: 27 wins, 20 draws and 11 defeats in 58 matches, 1.4 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Away from home Real Cartagena have 19 wins, 27 draws and 19 defeats in 65 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.1 per game. Both samples are low on goals: 2.3 per game in home matches of Quindio and 2.2 in away matches of Real Cartagena.
The 27 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Quindio 10, Real Cartagena 9, draws 8. Last time out (4 November 2026) it ended Real Cartagena 2:3 Quindio. On average these meetings produce 3.1 goals.
Form
Quindio: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
Real Cartagena: last five matches — D-D-D-D-D.
- 7 matches without a win · away
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Quindio — 1, Real Cartagena — 3 (of 16).
Home and away record
Quindio at home and Real Cartagena away, 2024–2026.
| Quindio | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 58 | 65 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 27-20-11 | 19-27-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Quindio won 10, 8 draws, Real Cartagena won 9. Per match: 3.1 goals.
- 04.11.2026: Real Cartagena 2:3 Quindio
- 16.10.2026: Quindio 1:1 Real Cartagena
- 01.04.2026: Real Cartagena 2:1 Quindio
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of Quindio home games and 39% of Real Cartagena away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Quindio 44%, draw 28%, Real Cartagena 28%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Quindio 2.4, Real Cartagena 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 59%).
Result
Our model: Quindio win 44%, draw 28%, Real Cartagena win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 46%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Quindio | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 47% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 71% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.