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FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: FBC Melgar 5.6, Deportivo Garcilaso 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: FBC Melgar 2.0, Deportivo Garcilaso 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 42%.
Form
FBC Melgar: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Deportivo Garcilaso: last five matches — L-W-D-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: FBC Melgar — 4, Deportivo Garcilaso — 3 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
FBC Melgar at home and Deportivo Garcilaso away, 2024–2026.
| FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 47 |
| Win rate | 67% | 26% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 38% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 57% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: FBC Melgar won 1, 3 draws, Deportivo Garcilaso won 3. Per match: 3.1 goals, 8.6 corners, 5.1 yellow cards.
- 28.04.2026: Deportivo Garcilaso 1:0 FBC Melgar
- 19.09.2025: Deportivo Garcilaso 1:1 FBC Melgar
- 18.04.2025: FBC Melgar 1:2 Deportivo Garcilaso
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.