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UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal: prediction and statistics
Peru · Primera División · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: UTC Cajamarca 5.3, Sporting Cristal 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: UTC Cajamarca 2.3, Sporting Cristal 2.1; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 44% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 42%.
Form
UTC Cajamarca: last five matches — D-D-L-L-L.
- 11 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Sporting Cristal: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: UTC Cajamarca — 18, Sporting Cristal — 9 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
UTC Cajamarca at home and Sporting Cristal away, 2024–2026.
| UTC Cajamarca | Sporting Cristal | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 51 |
| Win rate | 29% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 53% | 49% |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: UTC Cajamarca won 3, 8 draws, Sporting Cristal won 10. Per match: 2.9 goals, 10.9 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 19.04.2026: Sporting Cristal 3:2 UTC Cajamarca
- 23.08.2025: Sporting Cristal 2:2 UTC Cajamarca
- 06.04.2025: UTC Cajamarca 4:1 Sporting Cristal
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in UTC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 44%.