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FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Sochi · Shinnik Yaroslavl
Before kick-off
First League, 15 November 2026: FC Sochi are at home to Shinnik Yaroslavl. FC Sochi go into the match 4th of 18 in the table, Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th.
An uneven run for FC Sochi: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Shinnik Yaroslavl have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
FC Sochi are hard to beat on their own ground — 15 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats in 25 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. The away record of Shinnik Yaroslavl: 8 wins, 19 draws and 14 defeats in 41 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average.
This fixture often ends level: 5 of the 8 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Shinnik Yaroslavl 2:2 FC Sochi. On average these meetings produce 1.8 goals.
Form
FC Sochi: last five matches — W-L-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Shinnik Yaroslavl: last five matches — W-D-L-D-L.
- 12 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: FC Sochi — 4, Shinnik Yaroslavl — 7 (of 18).
Home and away record
FC Sochi at home and Shinnik Yaroslavl away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Sochi | Shinnik Yaroslavl | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-4-6 | 8-19-14 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: FC Sochi won 2, 5 draws, Shinnik Yaroslavl won 1. Per match: 1.8 goals.
- 12.07.2026: Shinnik Yaroslavl 2:2 FC Sochi
- 23.03.2025: FC Sochi 1:2 Shinnik Yaroslavl
- 04.08.2024: Shinnik Yaroslavl 0:2 FC Sochi
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 48% of FC Sochi’s home matches and 39% of Shinnik Yaroslavl’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 5 of 8 meetings.
- Our model expects more corners from FC Sochi: 5.7 against 4.1 for Shinnik Yaroslavl.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: FC Sochi 5.7, Shinnik Yaroslavl 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: FC Sochi 1.7, Shinnik Yaroslavl 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: FC Sochi win 46%, draw 26%, Shinnik Yaroslavl win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC Sochi | Shinnik Yaroslavl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 60% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 14.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 24% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.