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FC UFA vs Spartak Kostroma: prediction and statistics
Russia · First League · 15 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC UFA · Spartak Kostroma
Before kick-off
FC UFA host Spartak Kostroma in First League on 15 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — FC UFA are 8th, Spartak Kostroma 6th in a table of 18.
FC UFA have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Spartak Kostroma: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 6 and 7.
The home record of FC UFA (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 19 wins, 11 draws and 13 defeats in 43 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. On the road Spartak Kostroma are a dangerous side — 11 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats in 26 away matches, 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
The 6 previous meetings are fairly balanced — FC UFA 3, Spartak Kostroma 1, draws 2. Last time out (17 August 2026) it ended Spartak Kostroma 1:1 FC UFA. On average these meetings produce 1.3 goals.
Form
FC UFA: last five matches — D-D-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Spartak Kostroma: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: FC UFA — 8, Spartak Kostroma — 6 (of 18).
Home and away record
FC UFA at home and Spartak Kostroma away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC UFA | Spartak Kostroma | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 26 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-11-13 | 11-7-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: FC UFA won 3, 2 draws, Spartak Kostroma won 1. Per match: 1.3 goals.
- 17.08.2026: Spartak Kostroma 1:1 FC UFA
- 16.05.2026: Spartak Kostroma 0:1 FC UFA
- 14.02.2026: Spartak Kostroma 2:0 FC UFA
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: FC UFA 43%, draw 29%, Spartak Kostroma 28%.
- FC UFA should win the corner count: 5.4 expected against 4.0 for Spartak Kostroma.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of FC UFA home games and 54% of Spartak Kostroma away games.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: FC UFA 5.4, Spartak Kostroma 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 44%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: FC UFA 1.9, Spartak Kostroma 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.6. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: FC UFA win 43%, draw 29%, Spartak Kostroma win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FC UFA | Spartak Kostroma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 37% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 31% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.