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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnik Surdulica: prediction and statistics
Serbia · Super Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FK Crvena Zvezda · Radnik Surdulica
Before kick-off
Super Liga, 21 November 2026: FK Crvena Zvezda are at home to Radnik Surdulica. FK Crvena Zvezda go into the match 1st of 14 in the table, Radnik Surdulica are 6th.
Few sides are in better shape than FK Crvena Zvezda right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Radnik Surdulica have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for FK Crvena Zvezda against 7 for Radnik Surdulica.
FK Crvena Zvezda are hard to beat on their own ground — 38 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats in 45 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 3.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Radnik Surdulica — 4 wins, 10 draws and 12 defeats in 26 away matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 on average.
Head to head, FK Crvena Zvezda have the upper hand: 16 wins in 21 meetings with Radnik Surdulica in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 10 September 2026, finished Radnik Surdulica 0:0 FK Crvena Zvezda. On average these meetings produce 3.4 goals.
Form
FK Crvena Zvezda: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
Radnik Surdulica: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: FK Crvena Zvezda — 1, Radnik Surdulica — 6 (of 14).
Home and away record
FK Crvena Zvezda at home and Radnik Surdulica away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FK Crvena Zvezda | Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 26 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 38-4-3 | 4-10-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: FK Crvena Zvezda won 16, 4 draws, Radnik Surdulica won 1. Per match: 3.4 goals.
- 10.09.2026: Radnik Surdulica 0:0 FK Crvena Zvezda
- 17.05.2026: Radnik Surdulica 0:0 FK Crvena Zvezda
- 05.04.2026: Radnik Surdulica 1:2 FK Crvena Zvezda
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- FK Crvena Zvezda is the more likely winner in our model: 77%, draw 15%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 84% of FK Crvena Zvezda’s home matches and 31% of Radnik Surdulica’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours FK Crvena Zvezda: 16 wins in 21 meetings with Radnik Surdulica.
- Our model expects more corners from FK Crvena Zvezda: 6.1 against 2.7 for Radnik Surdulica.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: FK Crvena Zvezda 6.1, Radnik Surdulica 2.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.0, Radnik Surdulica 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 67%, typical match 65%.
Result
Our model: FK Crvena Zvezda win 77%, draw 15%, Radnik Surdulica win 8%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| FK Crvena Zvezda | Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 84% | 15% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.6 | 5.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 20% | 73% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.