Xpect
OFK Beograd vs Novi Pazar: prediction and statistics
Serbia · Super Liga · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: OFK Beograd · Novi Pazar
Before kick-off
Super Liga, 21 November 2026: OFK Beograd are at home to Novi Pazar. OFK Beograd go into the match 12th of 14 in the table, Novi Pazar are 8th. OFK Beograd are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
OFK Beograd are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Novi Pazar have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
OFK Beograd have not made their ground a fortress: 12 wins, 14 draws and 18 defeats in 44 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The away record of Novi Pazar: 14 wins, 12 draws and 19 defeats in 45 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 7 meetings — wins: OFK Beograd 2, Novi Pazar 3; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 1 August 2026, finished Novi Pazar 1:4 OFK Beograd. On average these meetings produce 3.3 goals.
Form
OFK Beograd: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 losses in a row · at home
Novi Pazar: last five matches — D-L-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: OFK Beograd — 12, Novi Pazar — 8 (of 14).
Home and away record
OFK Beograd at home and Novi Pazar away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| OFK Beograd | Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 12-14-18 | 14-12-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: OFK Beograd won 2, 2 draws, Novi Pazar won 3. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 01.08.2026: Novi Pazar 1:4 OFK Beograd
- 18.04.2026: Novi Pazar 1:5 OFK Beograd
- 15.02.2026: Novi Pazar 2:1 OFK Beograd
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 38% – 27% – 35%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 43% of OFK Beograd’s home matches and 40% of Novi Pazar’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: OFK Beograd 4.7, Novi Pazar 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: OFK Beograd 2.1, Novi Pazar 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 67%, typical match 65%.
Result
Our model: OFK Beograd win 38%, draw 27%, Novi Pazar win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| OFK Beograd | Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 27% | 31% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 42% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.