Xpect
Folgore Caratese vs Arzignano Valchiampo: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Folgore Caratese · Arzignano Valchiampo
Before kick-off
Folgore Caratese host Arzignano Valchiampo in Serie C – Girone A on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Arzignano Valchiampo are 5th of 20, Folgore Caratese 20th — a gap of 15 places. Folgore Caratese are in the bottom three.
Folgore Caratese are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Arzignano Valchiampo: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Counted in points, Arzignano Valchiampo took 7 from that stretch and Folgore Caratese only 2.
Home matches have been a struggle for Folgore Caratese (2024/25–2026/27) — 2 draws and 5 defeats in 7 games, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.0 on average. Away from home Arzignano Valchiampo have 17 wins, 8 draws and 20 defeats in 45 matches, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Folgore Caratese: last five matches — D-L-L-L-D.
- 7 matches without a win · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Arzignano Valchiampo: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Folgore Caratese — 20, Arzignano Valchiampo — 5 (of 20).
Home and away record
Folgore Caratese at home and Arzignano Valchiampo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Folgore Caratese | Arzignano Valchiampo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 0-2-5 | 17-8-20 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 57% of Folgore Caratese home games and 51% of Arzignano Valchiampo away games.
- Our model makes Arzignano Valchiampo the favourite at 52%; a draw is 25%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Folgore Caratese 2.3, Arzignano Valchiampo 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Folgore Caratese win 22%, draw 25%, Arzignano Valchiampo win 52%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 48%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Folgore Caratese | Arzignano Valchiampo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 0% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 42% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.