Xpect
Treviso vs Pergolettese: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Treviso · Pergolettese
Before kick-off
Treviso host Pergolettese in Serie C – Girone A on 21 November 2026. In the standings Treviso are 6th and Pergolettese 10th out of 20 teams.
Treviso have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Pergolettese are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 8 and 8.
Home advantage matters here: Treviso have 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 7 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.4 per game. Away from home Pergolettese have 10 wins, 16 draws and 19 defeats in 45 matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 per game. Both samples are low on goals: 1.4 per game in home matches of Treviso and 2.3 in away matches of Pergolettese.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Treviso: last five matches — D-D-L-W-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Pergolettese: last five matches — W-D-D-W-L.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Treviso — 6, Pergolettese — 10 (of 20).
Home and away record
Treviso at home and Pergolettese away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Treviso | Pergolettese | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 4-2-1 | 10-16-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 29% of Treviso home games and 40% of Pergolettese away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Treviso 41%, draw 30%, Pergolettese 29%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Treviso 2.0, Pergolettese 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Treviso win 41%, draw 30%, Pergolettese win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Treviso | Pergolettese | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 57% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.0 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 86% | 42% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.