Xpect
Giana Erminio vs Juventus U23: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Giana Erminio · Juventus U23
Before kick-off
Serie C – Girone A, 21 November 2026: Giana Erminio are at home to Juventus U23. Giana Erminio go into the match 15th of 20 in the table, Juventus U23 are 18th. Juventus U23 are in the bottom three.
An uneven run for Giana Erminio: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Juventus U23 are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 6 for Giana Erminio against 1 for Juventus U23.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Giana Erminio have 17 wins, 13 draws and 15 defeats in 45 matches, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Juventus U23 — 2 draws and 5 defeats in 7 away matches, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 6 meetings — wins: Giana Erminio 3, Juventus U23 2; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 11 August 2024, finished Giana Erminio 2:1 Juventus U23. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Giana Erminio: last five matches — D-D-W-L-D.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Juventus U23: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Giana Erminio — 15, Juventus U23 — 18 (of 20).
Home and away record
Giana Erminio at home and Juventus U23 away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Giana Erminio | Juventus U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-13-15 | 0-2-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Giana Erminio won 3, 1 draws, Juventus U23 won 2. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 11.08.2024: Giana Erminio 2:1 Juventus U23
- 05.02.2022: Giana Erminio 2:0 Juventus U23
- 29.09.2021: Juventus U23 0:1 Giana Erminio
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Giana Erminio is the more likely winner in our model: 50%, draw 25%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Giana Erminio’s home matches and 71% of Juventus U23’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Giana Erminio 2.3, Juventus U23 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 40% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 60%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Giana Erminio win 50%, draw 25%, Juventus U23 win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Giana Erminio | Juventus U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 38% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 71% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 14% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.