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Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad: prediction and statistics
Norway · Eliteserien · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ham-Kam · Fredrikstad
Before kick-off
Eliteserien, 21 November 2026: Ham-Kam are at home to Fredrikstad. They are neighbours in the table: Ham-Kam are 11th and Fredrikstad 12th of 16.
Ham-Kam are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Fredrikstad have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) Ham-Kam have 17 wins, 9 draws and 17 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The away record of Fredrikstad: 14 wins, 10 draws and 19 defeats in 43 matches, with 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 11 meetings — wins: Ham-Kam 3, Fredrikstad 5; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 20 June 2026, finished Fredrikstad 1:1 Ham-Kam. On average these meetings produce 1.7 goals.
Form
Ham-Kam: last five matches — D-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Fredrikstad: last five matches — W-D-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Ham-Kam — 11, Fredrikstad — 12 (of 16).
Home and away record
Ham-Kam at home and Fredrikstad away, 2024–2026.
| Ham-Kam | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 17-9-17 | 14-10-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Ham-Kam won 3, 3 draws, Fredrikstad won 5. Per match: 1.7 goals.
- 20.06.2026: Fredrikstad 1:1 Ham-Kam
- 16.05.2026: Fredrikstad 2:1 Ham-Kam
- 05.10.2025: Fredrikstad 1:1 Ham-Kam
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 56% of Ham-Kam’s home matches and 47% of Fredrikstad’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Ham-Kam: 5.8 against 4.4 for Fredrikstad.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Ham-Kam 5.8, Fredrikstad 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.3 yellow cards: Ham-Kam 1.6, Fredrikstad 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 24% (typical match — 23%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 76%, typical match 77%.
Result
Our model: Ham-Kam win 49%, draw 23%, Fredrikstad win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 63%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ham-Kam | Fredrikstad | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 11.0 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 61% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 12% | 26% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.