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Valerenga vs Start: prediction and statistics
Norway · Eliteserien · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Valerenga host Start in Eliteserien on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Valerenga are 8th of 16, Start 16th — a gap of 8 places. Start are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Valerenga have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Start: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 7 and 6.
The home record of Valerenga (2024–2026) is balanced: 14 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats in 27 matches, 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Start find it hard on the road: 1 win, 1 draw and 11 defeats in 13 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.5 per game in home matches of Valerenga and 3.9 in away matches of Start.
History favours Valerenga — 7 wins from 10 meetings with Start. Last time out (25 May 2026) it ended Start 2:0 Valerenga. On average these meetings produce 3.8 goals.
Form
Valerenga: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Start: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Valerenga — 8, Start — 16 (of 16).
Home and away record
Valerenga at home and Start away, 2024–2026.
| Valerenga | Start | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 13 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-5-8 | 1-1-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 3.0 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Valerenga won 7, 1 draws, Start won 2. Per match: 3.8 goals.
- 25.05.2026: Start 2:0 Valerenga
- 02.11.2024: Valerenga 1:1 Start
- 20.07.2024: Start 1:2 Valerenga
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 67% of Valerenga home games and 77% of Start away games.
- Our model makes Valerenga the favourite at 73%; a draw is 15%.
- Valerenga should win the corner count: 6.5 expected against 4.5 for Start.
- Valerenga has won 7 of the last 10 meetings with Start.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.9 corners in the match: Valerenga 6.5, Start 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 65% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 53%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Valerenga 1.6, Start 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 23%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 74%, typical match 77%.
Result
Our model: Valerenga win 73%, draw 15%, Start win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 60%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Valerenga | Start | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 77% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 69% |
| Total corners per match | 11.8 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 74% | 31% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 31% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.3 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.