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Tromso vs Viking: prediction and statistics
Norway · Eliteserien · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Eliteserien, 21 November 2026: Tromso are at home to Viking. Tromso go into the match 6th of 16 in the table, Viking are 1st.
Recent results of Tromso are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Viking have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) Tromso have 22 wins, 9 draws and 12 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Viking travel well: 23 wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats in 43 away matches, with 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 21 meetings — wins: Tromso 5, Viking 9; draws: 7. The most recent meeting, on 25 October 2026, finished Viking 3:1 Tromso. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Tromso: last five matches — D-W-D-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Viking: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Tromso — 6, Viking — 1 (of 16).
Home and away record
Tromso at home and Viking away, 2024–2026.
| Tromso | Viking | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-9-12 | 23-10-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
Head to head
21 meetings in our database: Tromso won 5, 7 draws, Viking won 9. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 25.10.2026: Viking 3:1 Tromso
- 20.02.2026: Tromso 1:1 Viking
- 19.10.2025: Tromso 1:3 Viking
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Viking is the more likely winner in our model: 71%, draw 16%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 54% of Tromso’s home matches and 65% of Viking’s away matches over three seasons.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Tromso 5.2, Viking 5.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 60%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 60%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Tromso 1.7, Viking 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 23%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 52%, typical match 41%.
Result
Our model: Tromso win 13%, draw 16%, Viking win 71%. Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Tromso | Viking | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 51% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 65% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 70% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 11.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 23% | 42% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.