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Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart: prediction and statistics
Germany · Bundesliga · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Hamburg SV 4.7, VfB Stuttgart 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.7. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 50%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Hamburg SV 1.8, VfB Stuttgart 2.2; typical match of the competition — 3.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 35%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 57%, typical match 55%.
Result
Market line without margin: Hamburg SV win 25%, draw 23%, VfB Stuttgart win 52%. Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Hamburg SV: last five matches — L-D-L-W-W.
VfB Stuttgart: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Hamburg SV — 16, VfB Stuttgart — 15 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Hamburg SV at home and VfB Stuttgart away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Hamburg SV | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 19 | 36 |
| Win rate | 37% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 83% |
| Both teams score | 68% | 72% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 58% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 31% |
Head to head
57 meetings in our database: Hamburg SV won 21, 8 draws, VfB Stuttgart won 28. Per match: 3.4 goals, 9.7 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 12.04.2026: VfB Stuttgart 4:0 Hamburg SV
- 30.11.2025: Hamburg SV 2:1 VfB Stuttgart
- 05.06.2023: Hamburg SV 1:3 VfB Stuttgart
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Market line without margin: Hamburg SV 25%, draw 23%, VfB Stuttgart 52%.