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Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Europa League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Jagiellonia Bialystok 6.1, Ararat-Armenia 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 50% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 63%, typical match 61%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Jagiellonia Bialystok 2.4, Ararat-Armenia 3.0; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 46%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 62%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Jagiellonia Bialystok win 61%, draw 22%, Ararat-Armenia win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 49%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Jagiellonia Bialystok
All 19: 10W · 6D · 3L · goals 31:19
Home 9: 6W · 1D · 2L · goals 17:9
- 16.09.26 · UEL · Olympiakos Piraeus (a) 1:2
- 27.08.26 · UEL · FC Iberia 1999 (a) 2:1
- 20.08.26 · UEL · FC Iberia 1999 (h) 4:0
- 13.08.26 · UEL · Rangers (a) 1:1
- 06.08.26 · UEL · Rangers (h) 2:1
League · Ekstraklasa 2026/27: 10 of 18 · 4W · 0D · 5L · goals 13:16. Poland — 11 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 45.1).
Ararat-Armenia
All 13: 5W · 2D · 6L · goals 16:20
Away 6: 1W · 1D · 4L · goals 7:13
- 16.09.26 · UEL · Sparta Praha (h) 1:4
- 27.08.26 · UEL · Universitatea Craiova (h) 1:0
- 20.08.26 · UEL · Universitatea Craiova (a) 1:1
- 11.08.26 · UCL · Celje (a) 0:2
- 04.08.26 · UCL · Celje (h) 2:1
League · Premier League 2026/27: 2 of 12 · 6W · 2D · 1L · goals 18:9. Armenia — 33 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 15.8).
UEL: league phase 2026/27: Jagiellonia Bialystok — 22 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played; Ararat-Armenia — 32 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Jagiellonia Bialystok: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Ararat-Armenia: last five matches — .
Team statistics for three seasons
Jagiellonia Bialystok at home and Ararat-Armenia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Ararat-Armenia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| Win rate | 67% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 0% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 50%.
How many yellow cards in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 62%.
Who is more likely to win Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Our model: Jagiellonia Bialystok 61%, draw 22%, Ararat-Armenia 17%.