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Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.6 corners in the match: Jong Ajax 5.0, De Graafschap 5.5. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Jong Ajax 1.7, De Graafschap 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 71%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: Jong Ajax win 31%, draw 21%, De Graafschap win 48%. Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 70%.
Form
Jong Ajax: last five matches — L-W-L-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
De Graafschap: last five matches — D-L-L-W-D.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Jong Ajax — 18, De Graafschap — 16 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Jong Ajax at home and De Graafschap away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Jong Ajax | De Graafschap | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 44 |
| Win rate | 28% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 70% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 18% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Jong Ajax won 6, 4 draws, De Graafschap won 7. Per match: 3.8 goals, 10.7 corners, 2.1 yellow cards.
- 06.02.2026: De Graafschap 4:0 Jong Ajax
- 03.10.2025: Jong Ajax 2:2 De Graafschap
- 19.04.2025: De Graafschap 2:0 Jong Ajax
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model expects 10.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 61%.
How many yellow cards in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 29%.
Who is more likely to win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model: Jong Ajax 31%, draw 21%, De Graafschap 48%.