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Jong Utrecht vs Roda: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Jong Utrecht 4.8, Roda 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Jong Utrecht 1.6, Roda 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 74%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: Jong Utrecht win 36%, draw 24%, Roda win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.
Form
Jong Utrecht: last five matches — L-L-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Roda: last five matches — D-L-W-D-L.
Team statistics for three seasons
Jong Utrecht at home and Roda away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Jong Utrecht | Roda | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 44 |
| Win rate | 28% | 34% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 49% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 26% | 27% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Jong Utrecht won 4, 2 draws, Roda won 11. Per match: 2.9 goals, 9.3 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 22.12.2025: Jong Utrecht 1:3 Roda
- 01.11.2025: Roda 1:1 Jong Utrecht
- 24.01.2025: Roda 3:0 Jong Utrecht
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 26%.
Who is more likely to win Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model: Jong Utrecht 36%, draw 24%, Roda 39%.