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Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk: prediction and statistics
Ukraine · Premier League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Karpaty · Zorya Luhansk
Before kick-off
Karpaty host Zorya Luhansk in Premier League on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Karpaty are 5th, Zorya Luhansk 7th in a table of 16.
Karpaty are unbeaten in the last 5 matches: 2 wins and 3 draws. Few sides are in better shape than Zorya Luhansk right now — 3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games.
The home record of Karpaty (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 16 wins, 11 draws and 9 defeats in 36 matches, 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Away from home Zorya Luhansk have 13 wins, 10 draws and 12 defeats in 35 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 per game.
History favours Zorya Luhansk — 14 wins from 22 meetings with Karpaty. Last time out (23 May 2026) it ended Karpaty 1:2 Zorya Luhansk. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Karpaty: last five matches — D-D-W-W-D.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
Zorya Luhansk: last five matches — W-D-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Karpaty — 5, Zorya Luhansk — 7 (of 16).
Home and away record
Karpaty at home and Zorya Luhansk away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Karpaty | Zorya Luhansk | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 35 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-11-9 | 13-10-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Head to head
22 meetings in our database: Karpaty won 2, 6 draws, Zorya Luhansk won 14. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 23.05.2026: Karpaty 1:2 Zorya Luhansk
- 05.12.2025: Zorya Luhansk 1:0 Karpaty
- 25.05.2025: Karpaty 1:3 Zorya Luhansk
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Zorya Luhansk has won 14 of the last 22 meetings with Karpaty.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 56% of Karpaty home games and 57% of Zorya Luhansk away games.
- Our model makes Karpaty the favourite at 54%; a draw is 24%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Karpaty 1.6, Zorya Luhansk 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Karpaty win 54%, draw 24%, Zorya Luhansk win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Karpaty | Zorya Luhansk | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 11.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 27% | 77% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 43% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.7 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.