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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh: prediction and statistics
Ukraine · Premier League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Shakhtar Donetsk · Livyi Bereh
Before kick-off
Premier League, 20 November 2026: Shakhtar Donetsk are at home to Livyi Bereh. Shakhtar Donetsk sit 1st in the 16-team table while Livyi Bereh are 12th, so 11 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Shakhtar Donetsk are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Livyi Bereh have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk are hard to beat on their own ground — 27 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats in 38 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), with 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for Livyi Bereh — 4 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats in 23 away matches, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. The most recent meeting, on 24 February 2025, finished Shakhtar Donetsk 1:0 Livyi Bereh.
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk: last five matches — D-W-W-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Livyi Bereh: last five matches — D-L-W-L-D.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Shakhtar Donetsk — 1, Livyi Bereh — 12 (of 16).
Home and away record
Shakhtar Donetsk at home and Livyi Bereh away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Livyi Bereh | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 23 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 27-6-5 | 4-6-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Shakhtar Donetsk won 2, 0 draws, Livyi Bereh won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals.
- 24.02.2025: Shakhtar Donetsk 1:0 Livyi Bereh
- 18.08.2024: Livyi Bereh 0:1 Shakhtar Donetsk
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk is the more likely winner in our model: 76%, draw 18%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 61% of Shakhtar Donetsk’s home matches and 26% of Livyi Bereh’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.6, Livyi Bereh 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 31% (typical match — 51%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 70%, typical match 49%.
Result
Our model: Shakhtar Donetsk win 76%, draw 18%, Livyi Bereh win 6%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 25%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Livyi Bereh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 71% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 26% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 30% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 13% | 30% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.