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Kataller Toyama vs Oita Trinita: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kataller Toyama · Oita Trinita
Before kick-off
J2 League, 21 November 2026: Kataller Toyama are at home to Oita Trinita. Kataller Toyama sit 4th in the 20-team table while Oita Trinita are 11th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
An uneven run for Kataller Toyama: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Oita Trinita have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 5 against 5.
Kataller Toyama have not made their ground a fortress: 7 wins, 8 draws and 12 defeats in 27 home matches (2024–2026), 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The away record of Oita Trinita: 10 wins, 15 draws and 21 defeats in 46 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
This fixture often ends level: 5 of the 8 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 9 August 2025, finished Oita Trinita 2:2 Kataller Toyama. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Kataller Toyama: last five matches — L-D-D-L-W.
- 11 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Oita Trinita: last five matches — D-W-D-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Kataller Toyama — 4, Oita Trinita — 11 (of 20).
Home and away record
Kataller Toyama at home and Oita Trinita away, 2024–2026.
| Kataller Toyama | Oita Trinita | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 46 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 7-8-12 | 10-15-21 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Kataller Toyama won 1, 5 draws, Oita Trinita won 2. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 09.08.2025: Oita Trinita 2:2 Kataller Toyama
- 11.05.2025: Kataller Toyama 1:1 Oita Trinita
- 25.09.2016: Kataller Toyama 0:0 Oita Trinita
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Kataller Toyama is the more likely winner in our model: 63%, draw 22%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 41% of Kataller Toyama’s home matches and 35% of Oita Trinita’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 5 of 8 meetings.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.0 yellow cards: Kataller Toyama 1.3, Oita Trinita 1.6; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 18% (typical match — 11%).
Result
Our model: Kataller Toyama win 63%, draw 22%, Oita Trinita win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 44%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kataller Toyama | Oita Trinita | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 26% | 22% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 7% | 9% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.