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Lazio vs Lecce: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie A, 21 November 2026: Lazio are at home to Lecce. Lazio sit 1st in the 20-team table while Lecce are 14th, so 13 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than Lazio right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Lecce recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for Lazio against 4 for Lecce.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Lazio have 19 wins, 16 draws and 8 defeats in 43 matches, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The away record of Lecce: 11 wins, 8 draws and 25 defeats in 44 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 32 meetings — wins: Lazio 18, Lecce 8; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, finished Lecce 0:0 Lazio. On average these meetings produce 3.0 goals.
Form
Lazio: last five matches — W-D-W-W-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Lecce: last five matches — L-L-W-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Lazio — 1, Lecce — 14 (of 20).
Home and away record
Lazio at home and Lecce away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Lazio | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-16-8 | 11-8-25 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Lazio won 18, 6 draws, Lecce won 8. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 24.01.2026: Lecce 0:0 Lazio
- 23.11.2025: Lazio 2:0 Lecce
- 25.05.2025: Lazio 0:1 Lecce
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 58% of Lazio’s home matches and 36% of Lecce’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Lazio: 5.2 against 4.1 for Lecce.
- Lazio is the more likely winner in our model: 74%, draw 17%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Lazio 5.2, Lecce 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Lazio 1.5, Lecce 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 70%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Lazio win 74%, draw 17%, Lecce win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Lazio | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 44% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 35% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 25% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.2 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.